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When Can I Retire?

5 Numbers You Actually Need to Know

"When can I retire?" is one of the most common questions we hear, and the honest answer is that it depends less on your age and more on a handful of numbers most people have never calculated. Retirement readiness is not about a magical birthday or a round savings figure. It is about understanding how five specific data points fit together in your plan.

Below are the five numbers we walk every client through when they ask if they are ready to retire. Knowing these turns a vague hope into a confident decision.

1. Your Real Retirement Spending Number

Forget the old rule that says you will spend 70 percent of your pre-retirement income. That guideline is too generic for a real plan. What matters is your actual annual spending in retirement, including healthcare, travel, hobbies, taxes, and the occasional new roof.

Track 12 months of expenses, then add categories that show up later in life such as Medicare premiums, long term care insurance, and gifts to family.

What to include:

  • Fixed essentials like housing, utilities, food, and insurance
  • Healthcare premiums plus out of pocket costs
  • Lifestyle spending such as travel, dining, and hobbies
  • Income taxes on withdrawals from pre tax accounts
  • Irregular costs like home repairs and vehicle replacement

2. Your Guaranteed Income Floor

This is the income that shows up every month no matter what the market does. It typically includes Social Security, pensions, and certain annuity payments. Your guaranteed income floor is the foundation of your retirement house. The bigger and stronger it is, the less stress your portfolio has to carry.

Run your Social Security estimate at ssa.gov/myaccount and compare claiming at 62, at full retirement age, and at 70. Delaying often increases lifetime income, but the right age depends on your health, spouse, and other resources.

3. Your Income Gap

Once you know your spending number and your guaranteed income, the math is simple. Subtract one from the other and you have your annual income gap. This is what your portfolio must produce each year.

For example, if you plan to spend $90,000 per year and Social Security covers $40,000, your gap is $50,000. That gap is the real assignment for your investments.

Quick Takeaway

Your income gap, not your total nest egg, is the number that drives whether you can retire. Two people with identical $1 million portfolios can have very different readiness levels depending on their gap.

4. Your Sustainable Withdrawal Rate

A sustainable withdrawal rate is the percentage of your portfolio you can pull each year with high confidence that the money will last. The well known 4 percent guideline is a starting point, but your personal number depends on your time horizon, asset allocation, tax mix, and flexibility on spending.

Multiply your gap by 25 to get a rough portfolio target at a 4 percent withdrawal rate. A $50,000 gap suggests a $1.25 million invested portfolio. Use this as a checkpoint, not a finish line.

5. Your Longevity Number

The final number is the one most plans underestimate: how long you might live. A healthy 65 year old couple has a strong chance that one spouse lives into their 90s. Planning to age 85 when you might live to 95 is one of the biggest risks in retirement.

Use a longevity estimator and lean conservative. Building a plan that works through age 95 or even 100 protects you from outliving your money, which is far more painful than leaving a little behind.

Putting the 5 Numbers Together

When these five numbers line up, you have clarity:

  1. You know what retirement actually costs you
  2. You know what reliable income covers
  3. You know the gap your portfolio must fill
  4. You know a withdrawal rate you can sustain
  5. You know how long the plan needs to work

From there, smart tax planning, Roth conversions, Social Security timing, and the right investment mix can stretch your dollars further than guessing ever will.

Ready to Run Your Numbers?

If you would like help applying these strategies to your unique goals, reach out to schedule a conversation. We will help you build a retirement plan that is grounded in your numbers, not generic rules of thumb.

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